By Marcus Schulmerich
This e-book is a consultant to asset and danger administration from a realistic viewpoint. it's established round questions caused by way of the worldwide occasions at the inventory markets because the heart of the decade:
- Why do crashes occur while in conception they need to no longer?
- How do traders care for such crises when it comes to their probability size and administration and accordingly, what are the results for the selected funding recommendations?
The ebook provides and discusses varied ways to finance and making an investment, i.e., smooth portfolio idea and behavioral finance, and gives an summary of inventory marketplace anomalies and old crashes. it's meant to function a accomplished advent to asset and hazard administration for bachelor’s and master’s scholars during this box in addition to for younger pros within the asset administration undefined. A key a part of this e-book is the routines to additional exhibit the suggestions provided with examples and a step by step enterprise case. An Excel dossier with the calculations and strategies for all 17 examples in addition to all company case calculations may be downloaded at extras.springer.com.
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Additional info for Applied Asset and Risk Management: A Guide to Modern Portfolio Management and Behavior-Driven Markets
For gold, the probability that • the annualized return lies between 4:7 and 44:1 % is 68:3 %. • the annualized return lies between 15:0 and 63:8 % is 95:4 %. Comparing Figs. 10 we see that because of the smaller volatility the ranges of the annual returns are narrower for gold. Let us compare the left tails: For Lufthansa stock, the expected return is • less than 54:2 % with a probability of 5 %. • less than 66:9 % with a probability of 2:5 %. • less than 82:2 % with a probability of 1 %. For gold, the expected return is • less than 8:1 % with a probability of 5 %.
In the world of finance, the standard measure of risk is called volatility. 11 To illustrate this, let us compare the price movements of Lufthansa stock with the gold price in the time period December 2008–March 2010. 3 shows the end-of-month prices of Lufthansa (in EUR), Fig. 4 the end-of-month prices of one ounce of gold (in EUR). While the Lufthansa stock price shows stronger fluctuations, the gold price remains very stable. Therefore, at that time, Lufthansa was the riskier investment. The stronger the up-and-down movements of the stock price, the greater the perceived risk, because if you sell your asset at the wrong time, you may end up with a large loss.
On the other hand, the factors N1 or N 1 1 have no impact on the correlation as long as it is computed by using either the population formulas or the sample formulas. This is because in the formula for the correlation, see Eq. 47), the terms N1 or N 1 1 simply vanish. Let us look at a concrete example. 22 1 Risk Measures in Asset Management Example 3 An analyst follows the stock of company XYC Ltd. over a 3-month period. At the beginning of the first month, the stock has a value of e 100. It rises to e 110 at the end of the first month, and to e 122 at the end of the second month.