Confrontation Analysis: How to Win Operations Other Than War by Nigel Howard

By Nigel Howard

Confrontaion research (How to win operations except war.); Nigel Howard; CCRP guides; 1999; 302 pages. disagreement among army, politicians, rebels, Allied Forces. clash answer and dilemmas in our global this present day. contains historic references.

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If it does not, they move into the Conflict phase, which consists of each undertaking to carry out its fallback position. Fear of this outcome, which is in general not liked by one or more parties, puts pressure on them to change; therefore, something must give, and what must give is either their fixed positions within the given frame or the fixed frame itself. In other words, to avoid the Conflict phase, they must change one or more of the following: • Objectives—Their own or others’ objectives (encapsulated in their positive positions) • Threats—Their own or others’ implicit threats of what they will do if they do not get their objectives (encapsulated in their fallback positions) Chapter 2 39 • Boundaries—Their own and others’ beliefs about the boundaries of their negotiations (modeled by the relevant set of players and cards) • Missions—Their own or others’ general aims pursued in the confrontation (resulting in the preferences they attach to various combinations of cards).

Milosevic and Mladic then had a subconfrontation as subplayers within the player Serbs. This was resolved by Mladic caving in. The Serbs then called Holbrooke back. Chapter 2 45 The Use of Force In this example, the Western threat was to use force. Is a threatened future necessarily one of armed conflict? At the political level, a threatened conflict may not involve force at all. Economic sanctions, for example, may be the only threat. The mere involvement of the military tends to carry the implicit threat of the use of arms, even though not necessarily their direct or immediate use.

The lack of foreseeable future is well known to warriors. As Clausewitz emphasizes, parties’ projections of what will happen if a threatened future is one of armed violence usually fall wide of the mark. The point for confrontation analysis is that these projections, not the reality, are what persuade players to choose one path or another. Chapter 2 51 Unexpected Contingencies and the Need for Positive Feelings Agreements between parties are necessarily contingent on the assumptions about the future the parties made at the time, even if they know these assumptions will turn out wrong.

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