By Doug Cocks
5 of five humans chanced on the next assessment helpful
5.0 out of five stars what is going to develop into folks?
October five, 2003
By invoice Godfrey
What becomes of humanity and its successors this century, over the present millennium and within the far away destiny (say 100,000 years or so)? Are we headed for extinction or is 'quality survival' attainable or perhaps most probably? Are the customers for caliber survival anything that we will be able to impression and, if that is so, what are the concern concerns on which to keep up a continuous concentration with the intention to optimize our prospects?
Doug Cocks engages with those questions with seen enthusiasm. His exploration is immensely wide-ranging and he brings jointly a rare variety of truth, conception and hypothesis in a fashion that's scholarly whereas ultimate colloquial, and which consists of the reader on a very attention-grabbing trip via - to cite one of many author's allegories - a chain of dungeons within which Posterity unearths herself having to slay a chain of dragons, maturing and turning out to be superior as she succeeds in overcoming each one extra bold dragon. Cocks' conclusions, no less than in regards to the risk of long-term caliber survival, are modestly optimistic.
He makes use of a technique that includes components of situation development and most well-liked futuring to discover those questions, basing his enquiry round 4 precedence matters. the problems are:
* Nursing the realm via unending change
* elevating the standard of social learning
* Confronting near-future threats and challenges
* looking ahead to deep-future challenges.
These concerns are chosen as consultant of the necessity to reply "collectively and selectively to an ever-changing set of precedence matters, that means these judged on the time to have a specific referring to even if the lineage can in attaining caliber survival."
Both the content material and the technique could be of curiosity to somebody eager about ahead making plans, in addition to to the final reader.
Anyone drawn to the lengthy- and shorter- time period way forward for humanity will locate this e-book a desirable and terribly wealthy resource of fabric and concepts. it's a travel de strength to were capable of gather and make experience of lots details whereas protecting an easy, undogmatic and eminently readable narrative. if you'd like fabric on which to base dialog, hypothesis or research approximately our destiny, glance no additional!
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Additional info for Deep Futures: Our Prospects for Survival
For example, carbon dioxide and heat from coal power stations could be used to grow micro-algae in vats. Active management of the demand for energy is another possibility. Overall, as natural gas runs out later this century, a scenario involving a diversity of energy sources would be unsurprising. 2: A DIFFERENT FORM OF RENEWABLE ENERGY Freeman Dyson (2000) suggests the possibility of genetically engineered crop plants which convert solar energy directly to liquid fuel which is collected by ‘tapping’ as latex is tapped from rubber trees or collected directly into underground fuel lines.
Schumpeter also foresaw that with the concentration of economies into giant corporations, capitalism would no longer have a constituency of small entrepreneurs to support it politically. Marx’s ‘inevitable’ progression from feudalism to capitalism to Communism retains credibility for some. Immanuel Wallerstein (1995), the father of world-systems theory, sees capitalism as doomed at some stage for several reasons: it relies on cheap labour which is slowly disappearing [sic] and it is being gradually forced to pay for environmental and other external costs it currently evades.
Thereafter, oil production could halve every 25 years or so. The energy break-even point for United States oil production (when it takes a barrel to retrieve a barrel) will probably occur in the first decade of this century. Oil will be increasingly replaced for some decades by natural gas for which only 2 per cent of known reserves have been extracted so far (Marchetti 1987). Similarly, it is efficient gas turbine generators that will drive coal from the electricity market. Absolute gas use should peak about 2060 (Ausubel 1998).